The New Spring Real Estate Market is Here. Are You Ready?

Which month do you think most people who are considering buying a home actually start their search? If you’re like most of us, you probably think the surge happens in the spring, likely in April. Not anymore.According to new research, January 2019 was only 1% behind February for the most monthly views per listing on realtor.com.

So, what does that mean? The busiest season in real estate has just begun.

The same research indicates,

“Historically, April launched the kickoff of the home shopping season as buyers would come out of their winter hibernation looking for their new home. However, the spring shopping season now starts in January for many of the nation’s largest markets.”

With the reality of fewer homes on the market in the winter, and that supply naturally increases as we head to the spring market, waiting for more competition to list in your neighborhood this year might put you behind the curve. Perhaps now is the time to jump into the market.

George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com says,

“As shoppers modify their strategies for navigating a housing market that has become more competitive due to rising prices and low inventory, the search for a home is beginning earlier and earlier.”

There is a lot of speculation in the market about why the search for a home is shifting to an earlier start. The one thing we do know is if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home this year, the earlier you get started, the better.

Reminder: When should you sell something? When there is less of that item for sale and the greatest number of buyers are in the market. That’s exactly what is happening in real estate right now.

Bottom Line

 The new spring market for real estate is underway. If you’re considering buying or selling, reach out to a local real estate professional, so you have the advantage in this competitive market.

Last week realtor.com released the results of a survey that produced three major revelations:

1. 55% said they would cancel plans to move if a recession occurred.
2. 53% of home purchasers (first-time and repeat buyers) currently in the market believe a recession will occur this year or next.
3. 57% believe the next recession will be as bad or worse than 2008.

Since we are currently experiencing the longest-ever economic expansion in American history, there is reason to believe a recession could occur in the not-too-distant future. And, it does make sense that buyers and sellers remember the horrors of 2008 when they hear the word “recession.”

Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research at the real estate consulting firm Meyers Research, addressed this point in a recent interview:

“With people having PTSD from the last time, they’re still afraid of buying at the wrong time.”

Most experts, however, believe if there is a recession, it will not resemble 2008. This housing market is in no way the same as it was just over a decade ago.

Zillow Economist, Jeff Tucker, explained the difference in a recent article, Recessions Typically Have Limited Effect on the Housing Market:

 “As we look ahead to the next recession, it’s important to recognize how unusual the conditions were that caused the last one, and what’s different about the housing market today. Rather than abundant homes, we have a shortage of new home supply. Rather than risky borrowers taking on adjustable-rate mortgages, we have buyers with sterling credit scores taking out predictable 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. The housing market is simply much less risky than it was 15 years ago.”

George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com, also weighed in on the subject:

“This is going to be a much shorter recession than the last one, I don’t think the next recession will be a repeat of 2008…The housing market is in a better position.”

In the past 23 years, there have been two national recessions – the dot-com crash in 2001 and the Great Recession in 2008. It is true that home values fell 19.7% during the 2008 recession, which was caused by a mortgage meltdown that heavily impacted the housing market. However, while stock prices fell almost 25% in 2001, home values appreciated 6.6%. The triggers of the next recession will more closely mirror those from 2001 – not those from 2008.

Bottom Line

No one can accurately predict when the next recession will occur, but expecting one could possibly take place in the next 18-24 months is understandable. It is, however, important to realize that the impact of a recession on the housing market will in no way resemble 2008.

Employees at Steamboat Ski Area went to work Monday morning for a new company.

A joint venture of KSL Capital Partners and Henry Crown and Company announced Monday that the purchase of Intrawest Resort Holdings, the parent company of the ski area, and Mammoth Resorts is complete.

“I think we’re all tremendously excited about the opportunities for Steamboat and the new company,” ski area President and Chief Operating Officer Rob Perlman said Monday. “Obviously, Steamboat continues to be an iconic resort, and with the new ownership — including the Henry Crown and Company as well as KSL forming the new company and bringing in other resorts including Mammoth and Squaw Alpine into the fold — the new company has 12 resorts coast to coast in North America, and it’s exciting times.”

Though excited about the sale, Perlman said it was very much business as usual at the ski area.

“We’re very focused on completing this summer and then looking toward the 2017-18 ski season,” Perlman said.

The sale combines Squaw Valley Ski Holdings, KSL, Intrawest and Mammoth Resorts as one company with 12 mountain resorts and six million annual skier visits.

The entity’s resorts include Squaw Valley, Alpine Meadows, Mammoth Mountain Ski Area, Snow Summit, Bear Mountain and June Mountain in California; Steamboat Ski Area and Winter Park Resort in Colorado; Blue Mountain Ski Resort in Ontario; Mont Tremblant Resort in Quebec; Stratton Mountain Resort in Vermont; and Snowshoe Mountain Resort in West Virginia.

The new company expects to launch a new name and brand prior to the beginning of the 2017-18 season. For the upcoming season, the new company will continue to honor the existing pass products that are currently on sale, including the Rocker Mountain Super Pass +, the M.A.X. Pass and the Mountain Collective.

Lis de Roziere, who handles investor relations for Intrawest, said there are no additional pass products planned for the immediate future.

The company’s new name and more information about new pass products could be announced in October, de Roziere said.

“We’ll have more guest-focused announcements at that time,” she said.

De Roziere also said the new company would be headquartered out of Intrawest’s current Denver office.

The sale comes as Steamboat Ski Area continues to work through the planning process for an expansion in the Pioneer Ridge area. Also on the ski area’s wish list is an additional gondola that would carry skiers up to a new ski school area in the Bashor Bowl area.

“We’re continuing to work through the process,” Perlman said. “Those plans have been in place, and we’re going through the process with the Forest Service in terms of the environmental impact statement. We’re continuing to go along in that process and bring the new leadership and the new company up to speed in due time.”

The companies also announced leadership changes effective upon the close of the transaction. Thomas Marano, Intrawest’s chief executive officer, resigned his position, and Intrawest will be delisted from the stock exchange.

KSL’s Bryan Traficanti was named interim chief executive officer, while a comprehensive search for a new chief executive officer is completed.

“This transaction marks a significant milestone for our company, our guests and our communities, and we are excited about the opportunities that lie ahead as a result of combining Intrawest, Squaw Valley Ski Holdings and Mammoth Resorts,” Traficanti said in a news release. “We believe that each resort brings something different to the company, and our goal is to preserve the unique character and culture of each while also building something greater.”

David Perry, who previously served as Aspen Skiing Company’s vice president and chief operating officer, was named the newly integrated company’s president and chief operating officer.

Perlman will report to Perry, who has spent more than four decades in the ski industry.

Former Steamboat Ski Area executive Andy Wirth has been named the president and chief operating officer of Squaw Valley Ski Holdings.

To reach Matt Stensland, call 970-871-4247, email [email protected] or follow him on Twitter @SBTStensland